On February 15th, with the $SPX at 1343, I declared that the market had put in a top. Then on the 16th, after a strong rally to 1358, I began to back peddle saying that if I was wrong then it would be clear by mid-week this week. Since the 15th, the $SPX has climbed approximately 1.5% and it appears to want to go higher and so my call was obviously wrong. If you’re long the market, you probably wish I would make another top call. Sorry. Ain’t happening.
Still, the market has been and remains overbought. $NYSI continues to roll over and there are signs of negative divergence in things like $NYHGH, which put in a strong showing early in the month but has since been unable to put in a higher high even though the markets have rocketed higher. $NYA50 & $NAA50 are in the same boat, as is $NAA50. $VIX closed at 16.80 today, its lowest close since July of last year, and could easily drop to 15.xx tomorrow. When the $VIX drops into the 15’s, you really do have to start worrying about getting caught in a pull back, but maybe this time it’s going to be different.
60min chart of IWM showing, though not very clearly, that the 13EMA crossed back up through the 34EMA while at the same time IWM bounced off the lower trend line and then closed above the upper trend line. Interesting that IWM closed today at the same price it closed at on February 16th. A close above the previous swing high of 83.31 within the next few sessions would have to be seen as a bullish move.
This is my last post for a while. My wife and I have decided to start the moving process tomorrow instead of Saturday. I want to thank all of you, about 100 visitors a day, for stopping by. I also want to thank those of you who have ‘mentioned’ or ‘liked’ my posts over at StockTwits.
Good luck to us, one and all.